Violent Crime Trends by “Side” of City

As promised, here are the first time-series data graphs, the average month by month violent crime index for the entire period for which I have collected/processed data.   This bird’s eye view shows a mellow wave that corresponds well to the seasons.  Say what you will about Chicago in February, it’s the safest time of year!



Now let’s break this single line down into several based on “side” of the city.  Firstly, here is how I defined the “sides”:

And this is the breakdown:

The placement of these lines relative to each other is hardly surprising given the territories they encompass on the crime map.  There is a fair degree of arbitrariness  is defining  geographical “sides”  at all, and putting the borders as I have was largely a complete judgment call on my part.  Sure, I based it on some level of rationality.  I think it’s fair to say that somewhere between 75th St. and 79th St., for example, you’re far enough south to warrant being on the “Far South” side.  After all, if you were that far north of Madison, you’d be in Evanston.

As a bit of an aside and a matter of forewarning, I’m going to try to keep this and blog posts generally as free of statistical gibberish as possible to keep this accessible.  I’m going to as a matter of policy provide the barest minimum of explanation of the stats in the blog posts.  I will hyperlink the concepts to other sites for those who want to read further as well as posting the hard numbers at the bottom of the posts.  I am also turning off the moderation settings in the comments, so any real stats geeks who happen to be reading can take me to task for my amateurish methodology.

Back to the graph.  It appears from the graph like the high crime areas also have more variation while the low crime areas are relatively constant.  This is mostly (but not entirely) an illusion based on the range of numbers the graph is showing.    There are certainly larger swings of crime in high crime areas in absolute numbers, but not really as a percentage of total crime.  Using the Coefficient of Variation to take this into account, the highest crime South Side has a CoV of about 20.4%, the highest of the bunch.  The second highest-crime West Side has the second lowest CoV of about 15.7%.  So in actuality, taking into account that there is just more crime in certain places than others, it really doesn’t vary that much more between the various areas mapped here.  They all sort of, as we saw in the first graph, roll with the seasons.

Data:

Cent. N. N.W. Far N.W. W. S.W. S. Far S.
Mean 43.32 19.00 26.44 14.23 70.87 25.54 75.04 47.20
Standard Deviation 7.47 3.36 4.05 2.44 11.14 3.92 15.30 8.25
Coefficent of Variation 17.24% 17.71% 15.31% 17.16% 15.71% 15.35% 20.39% 17.48%

Violent Crime Map, edited once again.

In my perpetual quest to walk the line between readability and informativeness, I have divided the colors into groups, roughly modeled after their electromagnetic frequencies, and then created four subdivisions within each color group.    I think the added level of complication is worth it.  There are the shades of purple on the north, which should come as no surprise.  The blues on the northwest and southwest sides almost form a ring around the West Side red zone in Garfield Park.  The greens interestingly seem to signal transitionary areas.   That is, they are bordered on either side by decent and decidedly dangerous areas.   A significant question is whether the crime rate varies uniformly over these areas or changes rapidly somewhere in the middle, with the side bordering on safe areas being itself also safe and the area bordering on the dangerous areas also itself being dangerous.  I suspect it is, more often than not, the latter, judging by my various ill-advised bike rides throughout this fair city.   I have posted the various VC Indexes below the map.  The average for the city is at about 528, which is between the darkest and second darkest green on the map.

And the data:

Comm Area VC Edison Park 44.28686 Norwood Park 49.00007 Forest Glen 57.48499 OHare 69.6598 Mount Greenwood 82.63223 Jefferson Park 105.153 Dunning 105.6732 North Park 116.6262 North Center 138.1757 Beverly 144.0694 Montclare 148.0778 Lincoln Square 149.3367 Portage Park 157.8527 Edgewater 161.9378 Albany Park 168.9074 Clearing 174.0806 Lincoln Park 174.5109 Lake View 179.3639 Bridgeport 180.1214 Irving Park 181.0791 West Ridge 185.4949 Hyde Park 217.5492 Hegewisch 223.2749 East Side 232.0843 Garfield Ridge 237.0339 Uptown 247.0979 West Elsdon 279.7194 Lower West Side 288.6189 West Lawn 290.3425 Avondale 295.498 McKinley Park 298.2283 Brighton Park 309.3131 Logan Square 310.0839 Near North Side 313.2287 South Lawndale 322.2777 Kenwood 325.3636 Belmont Cragin 328.1414 West Town 339.2626 Hermosa 339.594 Rogers Park 341.6309 Armour Square 373.6478 Douglas 383.4679 Ashburn 386.6232 Archer Heights 391.0434 Gage Park 396.4393 Near South Side 419.1248 Oakland 464.0129 Morgan Park 467.6648 Pullman 541.2687 Calumet Heights 569.624 Near West Side 587.5236 South Deering 629.5593 New City 680.6183 Washington Heights 691.9897 Loop 754.428 Grand Boulevard 772.8288 Chicago Lawn 805.917 Humboldt Park 849.7532 Riverdale 856.7843 Burnside 872.367 Austin 890.2048 South Shore 892.1938 South Chicago 905.1898 West Pullman 907.0116 Avalon Park 925.9841 Auburn Gresham 988.0668 Roseland 1025.911 Chatham 1093.954 North Lawndale 1179.835 Woodlawn 1181.694 Washington Park 1346.766 Greater Grand Crossing 1362.73 West Englewood 1404.563 Englewood 1449.434 West Garfield Park 1477.607 East Garfield Park 1606.766 Fuller Park 1861.264 AVERAGE 528.6458

And We’re Back

Despite the lack of activity on this blog, the Chicago Crime Project has been ongoing.  Specifically, I have continued to collect dataand have been improving the method of interpreting the data.  As you may have noticed, the data we were dealing with before was all aggregate (i.e the total amount of various crimes in various areas), which is fine as far as it goes (and when we only had six months of data).  Now, however, I have two years of data and the time is here to start doing fund and informative things with time series.  There will be day to day charts on all manner of issues as we move forward.  First, however, is an update of the famous violent crime and property crime maps.  They are not only more readable and visually pleasing than the old ones, but I have abandoned the relative ranking I used to do (i.e. the 10 best neighborhoods are one color, the next 10 best another, and so on) and have adopted absolute ranking (i.e. neighborhoods below x crimes per capita are one color, neighborhoods above x but below 2x crimes per capita are another, and so forth).  This, I believe, will give a more accurate picture of crime in the city.  Note that violent crime has a more fine-grained spectrum than property crime.  This is because, for better or worse, there is a much richer and varying fabric of violent crime than property crime in this city.  I have also tweaked slightly the formula I use to calculate the Violent Crime Index.  More on this later.  Now, the maps:

VIOLENT CRIME:

PROPERTY CRIME:


Chicago Crime Presentation and Paper

John and I began researching Chicago Crime and its relationship with demographic factors as students in the Empirical Methods of the Law class taught by Professors Ulen, Robbenolt, and Lawless at the University of Illinois College of Law. The class required a final presentation to the class and a final paper. The presentation can be downloaded by clicking on this link and the paper can be downloaded at this link.

The multivariate regressions in the paper are better thought out than the multivariate regressions in the presentation. The presentation also presents findings are more topics; however, the paper will be easier to follow given its explanations of the findings.

Violent Crimes and Median Rents

At long last, here is the promised value-for-the-money map.  Essentially, everything low ranked (purple/blues) has low median rent relative to the violent crime.  The middle rankings have violent crime rankings well reflected in the median rent, and the reds are high violent crime relative to the median rent.

VIOLENT CRIME/MEDIAN RENT RELATIVE RANK MAP:

value-for-rent

And here’s the corresponding table.  Those who are observant may notice that the “Value for $” figure is nothing more than the median rent rank minus the violent crime rank.  I tried many fancier methods, but this seems like the most crisp and effective way of determining how much daylight there is between the rent and violent crime in a neighborhood.  A discussion of the results follows:

CA # Community Area Violent Crime V.C. Rank Med. Rent M.R. Rank Value for $ Value Rank
34 Armour Square 307.34 27 351 74 47 1
31 Lower West Side 341.84 32 395 69 37 2
52 East Side 278.02 24 434 60 36 3
60 Bridgeport 227.06 19 456 54 35 4
30 South Lawndale 367.11 37 388 72 35 5
58 Brighton Park 323.78 30 433 61 31 6
36 Oakland 434.11 45 252 76 31 7
55 Hegewisch 271.23 23 465 52 29 8
59 McKinley Park 298.58 26 452 55 29 9
13 North Park 146.06 7 567 33 26 10
74 Mount Greenwood 136.13 6 589 25 19 11
50 Pullman 690.62 49 397 68 19 12
51 South Deering 717.84 51 393 70 19 13
64 Clearing 167.13 10 584 28 18 14
14 Albany Park 198.45 14 581 31 17 15
38 Grand Boulevard 959.12 57 357 73 16 16
54 Riverdale 1047.77 62 211 77 15 17
33 Near South Side 635.33 48 422 62 14 18
15 Portage Park 151.74 9 601 21 12 19
16 Irving Park 192.91 12 596 22 10 20
17 Dunning 115.98 5 636 14 9 21
65 West Lawn 284.69 25 561 34 9 22
35 Douglas 523.31 47 452 56 9 23
61 New City 813.91 54 408 63 9 24
9 Edison Park 33.16 1 678 9 8 25
11 Jefferson Park 115.76 4 648 12 8 26
21 Avondale 308.35 28 561 35 7 27
63 Gage Park 405.43 44 473 50 6 28
10 Norwood Park 43.30 2 714 7 5 29
12 Forest Glen 84.05 3 709 8 5 30
56 Garfield Ridge 368.46 38 520 42 4 31
18 Montclare 196.86 13 623 16 3 32
4 Lincoln Square 173.32 11 640 13 2 33
77 Edgewater 212.28 18 604 20 2 34
3 Uptown 362.96 35 541 37 2 35
46 South Chicago 996.96 60 437 59 -1 36
29 North Lawndale 1418.64 69 402 67 -2 37
37 Fuller Park 2985.97 77 342 75 -2 38
76 Ohare 149.23 8 746 5 -3 39
62 West Elsdon 314.58 29 588 26 -3 40
19 Belmont Cragin 336.97 31 585 27 -4 41
22 Logan Square 356.03 33 584 29 -4 42
42 Woodlawn 1455.84 70 403 66 -4 43
68 Englewood 1895.85 75 391 71 -4 44
20 Hermosa 389.14 41 545 36 -5 45
2 West Ridge 207.56 17 657 10 -7 46
72 Beverly 232.55 22 632 15 -7 47
40 Washington Park 1543.14 71 408 64 -7 48
75 Morgan Park 500.69 46 541 38 -8 49
41 Hyde Park 227.63 20 656 11 -9 50
5 North Center 204.22 16 719 6 -10 51
47 Burnside 857.91 55 490 45 -10 52
53 West Pullman 1108.94 63 459 53 -10 53
57 Archer Heights 362.27 34 594 23 -11 54
27 East Garfield Park 1985.83 76 404 65 -11 55
7 Lincoln Park 203.79 15 888 3 -12 56
73 Washington Heights 804.45 53 527 39 -14 57
23 Humboldt Park 1047.58 61 486 47 -14 58
71 Auburn Gresham 1132.07 65 470 51 -14 59
69 Greater Grand Crossing 1652.39 72 446 57 -15 60
26 West Garfield Park 1821.92 73 440 58 -15 61
25 Austin 989.84 59 511 43 -16 62
6 Lake View 228.69 21 834 4 -17 63
39 Kenwood 363.77 36 606 19 -17 64
66 Chicago Lawn 965.42 58 524 41 -17 65
1 Rogers Park 400.45 42 594 24 -18 66
48 Calumet Heights 696.41 50 568 32 -18 67
44 Chatham 1168.00 67 486 48 -19 68
45 Avalon Park 1145.95 66 487 46 -20 69
70 Ashburn 376.22 39 620 17 -22 70
24 West Town 379.92 40 613 18 -22 71
28 Near West Side 780.67 52 583 30 -22 72
43 South Shore 1123.33 64 525 40 -24 73
49 Roseland 1277.06 68 492 44 -24 74
67 West Englewood 1826.86 74 485 49 -25 75
8 Near North Side 404.78 43 904 2 -41 76
32 Loop 888.71 56 1107 1 -55 77

 

Obviously, there are factors that we would expect to make rents skew low.  One would be distance from the Loop.  Thus, the high value areas on the far Northwest and Southeast sides of the city make sense and are expected.  The commute into the Loop in these areas is longer than the commute from many inner western suburbs.    What is remarkable is the huge sea of purple on the Southwest side.   Even the South Loop, a stone’s throw away from downtown Chicago, is a remarkably good deal.  So, what are these neighborhoods, and what do they look like?

CA # Community Area Value Rank % Afr-Amr % Asian % Latino % White Household Med. Inc.
34 Armour Square 1 14% 66% 4% 15% $25,582
31 Lower West Side 2 2% 0% 91% 7% $27,407
60 Bridgeport 4 1% 27% 35% 37% $37,616
30 South Lawndale 5 14% 0% 83% 3% $31,443
58 Brighton Park 6 1% 3% 81% 15% $36,704
36 Oakland 7 98% 0% 1% 1% $14,021
59 McKinley Park 9 1% 8% 66% 25% $38,012
38 Grand Boulevard 16 98% 0% 1% 1% $18,421
33 Near South Side 18 64% 6% 5% 25% $48,331
35 Douglas 23 87% 6% 1% 7% $28,101

Quite a diverse lot. 

Median Rent Map

Here is a map of the median rent (2005) estimations for each of the 77 Chicago Community areas.  The colors are a bit different than usual.  They are arranged with the lower ranked areas having higher rents.   This is a bit odd, but it does make it easier to compare to the crime maps.  There are clear similarities between the crime and rent maps, which probably should not come as any surprise.

MEDIAN RENT MAP:

median-rent

And here is the underlying data in order (highest to lowest rent), now with nifty hyperlinks:

CA # Community Area Rank Median Rent
32 Loop 1 $1,107
8 Near North Side 2 $904
7 Lincoln Park 3 $888
6 Lake View 4 $834
76 Ohare 5 $746
5 North Center 6 $719
10 Norwood Park 7 $714
12 Forest Glen 8 $709
9 Edison Park 9 $678
2 West Ridge 10 $657
41 Hyde Park 11 $656
11 Jefferson Park 12 $648
4 Lincoln Square 13 $640
17 Dunning 14 $636
72 Beverly 15 $632
18 Montclare 16 $623
70 Ashburn 17 $620
24 West Town 18 $613
39 Kenwood 19 $606
77 Edgewater 20 $604
15 Portage Park 21 $601
16 Irving Park 22 $596
57 Archer Heights 23 $594
1 Rogers Park 24 $594
74 Mount Greenwood 25 $589
62 West Elsdon 26 $588
19 Belmont Cragin 27 $585
64 Clearing 28 $584
22 Logan Square 29 $584
28 Near West Side 30 $583
14 Albany Park 31 $581
48 Calumet Heights 32 $568
13 North Park 33 $567
65 West Lawn 34 $561
21 Avondale 35 $561
20 Hermosa 36 $545
3 Uptown 37 $541
75 Morgan Park 38 $541
73 Washington Heights 39 $527
43 South Shore 40 $525
66 Chicago Lawn 41 $524
56 Garfield Ridge 42 $520
25 Austin 43 $511
49 Roseland 44 $492
47 Burnside 45 $490
45 Avalon Park 46 $487
23 Humboldt Park 47 $486
44 Chatham 48 $486
67 West Englewood 49 $485
63 Gage Park 50 $473
71 Auburn Gresham 51 $470
55 Hegewisch 52 $465
53 West Pullman 53 $459
60 Bridgeport 54 $456
59 McKinley Park 55 $452
35 Douglas 56 $452
69 Greater Grand Crossing 57 $446
26 West Garfield Park 58 $440
46 South Chicago 59 $437
52 East Side 60 $434
58 Brighton Park 61 $433
33 Near South Side 62 $422
61 New City 63 $408
40 Washington Park 64 $408
27 East Garfield Park 65 $404
42 Woodlawn 66 $403
29 North Lawndale 67 $402
50 Pullman 68 $397
31 Lower West Side 69 $395
51 South Deering 70 $393
68 Englewood 71 $391
30 South Lawndale 72 $388
38 Grand Boulevard 73 $357
34 Armour Square 74 $351
37 Fuller Park 75 $342
36 Oakland 76 $252
54 Riverdale 77 $211

Updated Violent Crime Map (plus BONUS Property Crime Map)

Thanks first to our small but helpful commentariat.  Just because your suggestions have not been acted upon does not mean they are (entirely) without merit.  We have been busy actually updating data and running regressions.  Expect more substantive posts soon, but, in the meantime, please enjoy an updated version of the previously posted violent crime map as well as a similar one for property crimes.  You will note that I replaced the green color with tan to make it more intuitive (and visually pleasing).  Again, lower ranked areas have less crime.

VIOLENT CRIME:

violent-crimes-4

 

PROPERTY CRIME:

property-crimes

Update (12/14/2008):  Minor corrections made to violent crime map.  7 Community Areas move up or down one category from previous map.


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